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Is economic development in the Pacific island countries export led or import led?

机译：太平洋岛国的经济发展是出口拉动还是进口拉动？

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摘要

This article examines the export-led growth and import-led growth hypotheses for a panel of Pacific island countries—namely, Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Tonga and Vanuatu—for the period 1982–2004. The modelling is performed using a panel unit root, panel co-integration and panel Granger causality approach. We find bi-directional Granger causality for the panel of Pacific island countries between exports and economic growth, imports and economic growth, and exports and imports. The results suggest that the poor growth performance of many Pacific island countries reflects their poor export performance; however, if the supply-side constraints on exports are removed, there could be a virtuous cycle between economic growth and exports.
机译：本文研究了1982-2004年期间一组太平洋岛国（即斐济，巴布亚新几内亚，所罗门群岛，汤加和瓦努阿图）的出口带动增长假设和进口带动增长假设。使用面板单元根，面板协整和面板Granger因果关系方法进行建模。我们发现太平洋岛国在出口与经济增长，进口与经济增长以及进出口之间存在双向格兰杰因果关系。结果表明，许多太平洋岛国的增长不佳反映了它们的出口不佳；但是，如果消除对出口的供应方限制，经济增长与出口之间可能会形成良性循环。

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